Sunday, October 22, 2006

Observations, Part 6 - Election Predictions for November 7, 2006

Some weeks ago, I predicted the Democrats would regain the house, gaining 22+ seats, and they had a good shot at gaining 5 or 6 Senate seats -- 6 would give them the Senate Majority. I'm sticking by my predictions (though I desparately hope I'm wrong).

I spent some time studying the latest polls (best place to do that is ) in the various races yesterday. From what I've learned, I think the Dems have an absolute LOCK on at least 20 seats. They are within easy range of taking 8-10 more, and another 5-7 House seats are not out of the question. It is unlikely they would win EVERYONE of those seats, but it is LIKELY they will win at least SOME of them.

In the Senate, the Dems have a virtual LOCK on 5 seats. The only real question is the MO seat of Jim Talent. If the Dems get just a SMALL push, his seat will be lost too -- which would give the Dems a 51-49 majority in the Senate. Heaven help us...

WOuld love to hear if anyone in the toss up states (PA, OH, MO, etc.) have insights or particular takes on the races...


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