Monday, November 06, 2006

The Last Minute: Election Predictions and Explanations

I've just gone ove the polling data for the last time before tomorrows election.

After the absolutely idiotic and inane comments of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass) last week, I allowed myself a moment of hope. Alas, it was short-lived. I now believe the bump Republicans enjoyed over the last week are fading.

My original perdiction several weeks (months) ago, was that Democrats would gain 22+ seats and regain control of the House, and that they would gain 5+ seats in the Senate -- 5 would bring a tie, 6 would give the Democrats control.

Last week in the wake of the Kerry fiasco, several Senate races tightened -- including Missouri, Montana and Virginia. All of these are Republican seats. All of them are "too close to call" according to pundits. I believe at least 2 of the three will be lost.

To Summarize my Senate perdictions with regard to the seats that are questionable:

Missouri Democrat gain -- McCaskill over Talent (by <1%)
Montana Democrat gain -- Tester over Burns (by 3%)
Ohio Democrat gain -- Brown over DeWine (by 5%)
Pennsylvania Democrat gain -- Casey over Santorum (by 6%)
Rhode Island Democrat gain -- Whitehouse over Chafee (3%+)
Virginia Democrat gain -- Webb over Allen (<1%)

If any of these are incorrect, it is likely to be either the Virginia or Missouri races. Republicans WON'T win both. I think Kyl in Arizona and Corker in Tennessee will BARELY hold on to their Republican seats -- but even these two seats are NOT a sure thing. The seats held by endangered Democrats like Cardin in Maryland, Menedez in New Jersey and Lieberman in Connecticut will remain safely Democrat it appears. Though Leiberman will technically be Independent, he has said he will remain part of the Democratic caucus -- if he had half a brain he could bargain with the Republicans for real power, but I suppose someone has to be the Democrats Don Quixote.

In short, Democrats win 5 or 6 seats, retake Senate.

There are too many House seats to single out, but here's my brief take:

The Democrats have an absolute lock on 13 current Republican seats, and will probably capture 9 more barring a political earthquake. I think they have a realistic shot at at least 3 other Republican seats. I predicted they would win 22+ seats weeks ago, and I've seen relatively little evidence that Republicans have cut into that margin. Though the Republicans MAY pick up one or two Democrat seats in toss-up races, the Democrats retaking the House at this point, from my observations, are beyond the abilities of Republicans to prevent.

In short, Democrats gain 22+, retake House.

Now some analysis and explanations. I think there are several reasons why Democrats will make such gains in the mid-term elections, and why they will retake Congress.

First, let's face it, Republican's have, after 12 years in charge of the Legislative branch of our Government, finally taxed the patience of many Conservatives beyond the breaking point. That process, for me, began WAY back in 1995 with the failure of Newt Gingrich to stand up to the Clinton Government shutdown. I left the Republican Party the next year -- with a little help from disastrous Republican Governor David Beasley in South Carolina. The failure of the Senate in 1999 to convict Comrade Clinton of the impeachment of High Crimes and Misdemeanors paved over the grave of my Republican life.

But instead of becoming MORE dedicated to the principles that got them there, Republicans in Senate in particular, have moderated their stands, compromised their principles -- in short, they've tried to BE Democrats while retaining the Republican labels. Examples? Illegal Immigration, deficit (and pork barrel) spending and failure to push for social issues important to the base. That kind of equivocation never works. Yellow Dog Democrats will NEVER vote for ANY Republican, and trying to be like them will only result in the loss of Republican Conservative base votes.

I find most ironic on this point the fact that the Republicans acutally have a better shot at KEEPING the Senate, while the more deserving Conservative House Republicans will almost certainly be lost.

Because I understand the stakes, I WILL be voting -- for Republicans -- tomorrow. But I'm afraid there are those who have forgotten the stakes...

Which leads to a second reason I think the Democrats will win. It's been over 5 years since 9/11. It's been over 5 years since a major terrorist attacks on the United States. It's been almost 6 years of the MSM (mainstream media) relentlessly pounding on President Bush, the Republican Congress, and the War against Islamofascism. They have largely succeeded in their effort to paint the President as incompetent or evil, to describe the Republican Congress as corrupt, and to portray the Global War in which we are engaged as "unwinnable," "another Vietnam," and "based on a lie." Because most Americans have a short attention span, and due to the fading memories of the events of 9/11, and because we no longer believe the principles of freedom are worth dying for, and because we think the price of fighting terror is too high; for all those reasons, the Democrats will likely win.

No matter how good the economy is, no matter how much income increases, or unemployment goes down or how dangerous our enemies in the world become, it just doesn't "feel right."

"Let's talk to Iran, and North Korea, and Osama," they say, "I mean, we need things. We like peace. If we stop bothering them will they leave us alone so we can play our video games and watch our DVD's and listen to our IPod's?"

These are all valid and observable reasons why I believe the Democrats will win. These are the reasons that our Islamofascist enemies in Al-Queda and and Iran, and our Communist foes in North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba, and those who tacitly back them -- like China and Russia -- desparately want the Democrats to win. Almost as desparately as their accomplices here in America -- the Liberal Democrats themselves.

Please, go vote tomorrow. MAKE ME WRONG! Otherwise, as I've recommended before, learn to speak Arabic. And you might want to go ahead and purchase your prayer rug, and ladies may need to visit the Burkha store....

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