Monday, November 03, 2008

Election 2008 - Final Projections

The map I link to above is my final projection for the Electoral College 2008.

In about 30 hours, Election day will officially begin. I've spent several hours today looking at polls & trends. Unfortunately, I can find no great groundswell of support for McCain/Palin that will power them over the finish line first.

I expect McCain to win GA, ... Read MoreIN, ND & MO. It appears FL, VA, OH, NV, NM & CO are breaking to Obama. Obama will also retain PA, NH & IA, which will give the Obama/Biden ticket the largest electoral victory since Bill Clinton's reelection in 1996.

Summary: Popular vote - 52.1% Obama/Biden, 47.3% McCain/Palin. Electoral College - 338 Obama/Biden, 200 McCain/Pailn.

God help us all....

The current compostition of the US Senate is 49 Dems, 49 Reps, and 2 Inds who caucus with Dems. Thus, Dems have a 51-49 controlling majority in the Senate.

The current composition of the US House is 235 Dems, 199 Reps, and 1 vacant seat.

As of today, the best I can tell, the Democrats are likely to pick up 7-8 Senate seats, including those in the states of AK, CO, NH, NM, NC, OR & VA. The one questionable race that would give them 8 would be Minnesota. But, if Norm Coleman is defeated by the arrogant, Liberal, Hollywood "comedian" wannabe turned failed radio talk show host Al Franken, then the US deserves total destruction.... Okay, leaving my soapbox now.

I expect the next Senate to be 59 Dems to 41 Reps, just short of the magic "60" needed to be filibuster-proof. If so, that would be a God-ordained miracle. Also, Joe Lieberman may be shunned by Dems, and so may caucus with Republicans, meaning 58-42. That may be just an outside personal fantasy at this point though. AND, Dems are notorious for picking off weak RINO's and getting them to switch parties for some kind of power or perk in the Senate, or at least to sign on to a filibuster-proof majority on an issue by issue basis. So Election Day may not remove that possibility for weeks -- or for 2 more years.

In the House, I believe it's a fairly safe bet that the Dems will pick up at least 20 seats.
That could reach as high as 40 or 42 seats, if Obama were to win an overwhelming Reagan-type landslide -- but I think that's unlikely. A more accurate projection is very difficult in the house, because there is a lack of polling and research data in some of the races, and local events can have a profound effect on individual races.

Bottom line in the House races, though... I expect the New balance in the house to be 259 Democrats, 176 Republicans. That would be a commanding control of the House, and Obama, Pelosi, et. al. coudl have virtually anything they wanted in the "lower chamber."

I sincerely hope my conclusions are incorrect. Anything can still happen until the polls actually close, but time is almost gone. And, if I am right, I have a deep and abiding conviction that the United States we once knew will be gone in short order.

Again, God help us all.


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